Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005

Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005

Post by edgrspr » Thu, 14 Jul 2005 07:20:05

Hank Oredson" < XXXX@XXXXX.COM > wrote in message
news:7%UAe.4148$ XXXX@XXXXX.COM ...

July 12, 2005

Thanks for the response and questions.

The following are my personal opinions on this.

Briefly, the amount of data available for this type of effort is
virtually limitless. And more of those data than most people could even
deal with can be obtained for free.

You don't have to build a new laboratory filled with expensive equipment.

A reasonably powerful computer,
Access to the Internet,
At least some knowledge of science
Some computer programming ability
And a little imagination

Are all that are required.

Researchers have been attempting to do this type of work for probably
as far back as we have historical records. The reason that previous efforts
that I am aware of have not been successful is because two key discoveries
needed to be made. They are referred to on my 90-05.html Web page as the
"Gravity Point" and "Earthquake Triggering Symmetry." Now that those
discoveries have been made the door should be open to tremendously rapid
advances in our understanding of how and why earthquakes occur and how to
forecast them.

Much of this research could be easily done by computer programmers.
You don't need to be a geophysicist. If the data you are generating look
statistically significant then they are probably important whether or not
you actually understand the geophysical theories behind them.

To actually forecast earthquakes using the procedure I have developed
you need both warning signal data and earthquake data along with some ocean
tide and Solid Earth Tide data. But one of the really great parts of this
particular research project is the fact that many of the basic discoveries
can be made by simply comparing earthquakes with one another. You don't
need any warning signal data at all. And there is certainly no shortage of
earthquake data!

At my Web site there is a discussion of a concept called "Earthquake
Pairs." They are two or more earthquakes which were apparently triggered in
the same manner. My data indicate that the two highly destructive 1998
earthquakes in Afghanistan would represent an Earthquake Pair. And the two
highly destructive 1999 earthquakes in Turkey would represent another pair.
Important discoveries can be made by determining what the similarities are
between the two or more earthquakes in an Earthquake Pair and how they
differ from other earthquakes. And since the group of earthquake warning
signals that I am presently working with is being controlled by the same
forces that are responsible for earthquake triggering, significant
discoveries regarding earthquake triggering processes could be immediately
applied to forecasting efforts.

One of the reasons that geologists have not yet taken an interest in
this particular effort could be because it is heavily reliant on celestial
mechanics. And most geology researchers appear to me to prefer to focus on
measuring forces within the ground. I presently suspect that astronomers
would be a more likely group to take an interest in this science at first.
And I am planning to contact some of them about that.


Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005

Post by Hank Oreds » Thu, 14 Jul 2005 08:37:33

edgrsprj" < XXXX@XXXXX.COM > wrote in message
news:pmXAe.9096$ XXXX@XXXXX.COM ...

I guess my question was not specific enough.
What I wanted was the exact sources, so I could access the data.
The exact data sets you used.

I'm a retired physicist with a great deal of experience in data
transformation, verification and analysis. Also plenty of computers.
Fast internet connection.

I have all those things.

References please, I found some simple description, but no
mathematics or references to the data sets used or the equations
you used to do your analysis. Point me to that stuff.

No problem understanding the physics (geo or otherwise).
No problem writing software to do the analyses.
Might even be fun.

Yes, I understand all that.
Where are the data sets?
Where is the description of the "procedure"?
URLs would be nice, journal article references are ok.

I would rather do my own data analysis, but for me to do that
there must be published data sets, that I can use.
Doing the various coorelations, power spectra, convolutions is easy.
So what is needed is the data sets, and the specific things you think
make prediction possible. Then I can test those things, along with
others that I might find interesting.

So point me to the equations then.
Doing some analysis sounds like fun.
Celestial mechanics is no problem, easy stuff.
There is a copy of Bowditch on the shelf over there.
I know a good astrologer. Also several astronomers.
But which exact data sets did you use?


... Hank


Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005

Post by edgrspr » Fri, 15 Jul 2005 05:26:38

July 13, 2005

Thanks again for the comments and interest.

The original report in this thread should have contained pointers to
all of the information you are requesting. But once again, here are some of
the important URLs.

That Web page contains information regarding the details of how the
forecasting program works. Also stored there are copies of an early
Zipped .txt version of the Perl program I am using along with Zip file
versions of earlier versions of the .txt format database files that I am
using. I had to Zip them because of their size and the limited bandwidth of
that Web site. If you would prefer to receive them as regular text files
then you can try contacting me by e-mail and I will try to send them along.

Perl users who downloaded and ran that .pl program some time ago said
that they had no trouble getting it to run on a Window's XP system. Other
operating system users might encounter a few formatting problems etc.

Those Web pages discuss the theories involved with this forecasting
method. Some of the most important information is at the end of that
128.html Web page.

That Web page contains several types of forecast data along with some
information regarding how to interpret them.

That Web page contains some "Help" information with details regarding
things such as the U.S. Navy's MICA computer program which I use to generate
data for things such as the locations of the Earth, sun, and moon relative
to the J2000 reference system.

You should not expect to be able to instantly absorb all of that
information though it sounds like understanding it should not be a problem
for you. I have been working on the project for about 15 years. And
unfortunately, every improvement seems to take days, weeks, months, ...

Additionally, as I said in my first report in this thread, the
multiple participants part of the project is not yet operational. For one
thing, a suitable Web site has to be found. Right now I am simply
trying to determine what the interest level there might be in such a
project. And positive feedback that I have been getting by e-mail etc.
has been encouraging.

Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005

Post by Hank Oreds » Fri, 15 Jul 2005 08:39:46

edgrsprj" < XXXX@XXXXX.COM > wrote in message
news:2OeBe.2928$ XXXX@XXXXX.COM ...

I found no equations there, nor any links to the original data sources.

Did not find any information on the source of the data.

Everything looked fairly obvious, except that there did not seem
to be any reference to the source of the datasets.

Perhaps I was not clear enough in my previous posts.

I am looking for the SOURCE of the data, that is, where did
YOU get the data from, so that I may obtain my own datasets.

In particular I am interested in the EM dataset.


... Hank


Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005

Post by edgrspr » Sat, 16 Jul 2005 13:42:12

July 14, 2005

Hi Hank,

I have another important project that I need to focus on at the
moment and unfortunately cannot yet spend too much time on this one. The
purpose of the original post was simply to determine if there were any
people interested in this proposed project. And your responses and others
indicate that there are.

Detailed information regarding the forecasting program can be found
on the following Web page:

Demonstration versions of the data files you are interested in plus
an early, fully operational version of the Perl language data processing
program itself can be found in the following files:

That program contains the following equations which do most of the
important work:

$londiff = 2**(1 + (abs($dblonval - $testlonval)/3.9));
$probvalue = $testsigstren*$testweight*(10 - $londiff);

If you download all of the files and follow the ReadMe.txt
instructions for how to organize a directory where the files can be stored
and run, then if you have Perl running on your computer the
program should run okay under Windows XP and fairly well under Windows 98.
Other operating systems probably need to have some adjustments made to the file.

The files that I myself actually use are too large to store at that
Web site. As far as obtaining the original data, each file is a composite
of a number of different types of data. For instance, the main earthquake
data file contains actual earthquake data (mostly NEIS) and specially
processed sun, moon, ocean tide, and Solid Earth Tide data. At the moment,
the complete files including the EM signal data file have to be obtained by
e-mail from me (no charge). An important goal of this project is to have
all of them stored at a Web site for downloads. Also, I collect the
EM signal data myself. But if this project ever gets off the ground
those types of data will hopefully become available for free from
many sources around the world.

Finally, remember as I said earlier, I have been working on this
project for 15 years. And it covers a lot of territory. A detailed
discussion of it would fill a small book!

Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005

Post by Bob Office » Wed, 20 Jul 2005 03:54:37

n Wed, 13 Jul 2005 23:39:46 GMT, in sci.geo.earthquakes, "Hank Oredson"
< XXXX@XXXXX.COM > wrote:

There isn't any "data set"

There are no "formula"...

There is only EGD


Look down to the middle of the page E.D.G.

Listed as "Cranky"


Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005

Post by Lemmin » Fri, 29 Jul 2005 09:49:36

On Wed, 13 Jul 2005 23:39:46 GMT, "Hank Oredson"

Hank, with respect ...

Posted to nine newsgroups; fluffy responses when you ask specific
questions; evasion when you repeatedly ask for real data ... I regret
to say, YHBT.

Curiosity *may* have killed Schrodinger's cat.

Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005

Post by Hank Oreds » Fri, 29 Jul 2005 13:35:51

Why yes, your post was much more informative and interesting.
Do you have the EM dataset?


... Hank ~horedson ~w0rli