Mac shipments lowest in 1.5 years - first year-over-year drop in 5.5 years
By: switchtoamac at: 2:40 PM on April 27, 2009 | Comments (2)
On April 22, 2009 Apple reported earnings for its fiscal 2009 second quarter
that ended on March 28, 2009. Although Apple's CFO commented that the
quarter was "the best non-holiday quarter revenue and earnings in our
history", Mac shipments were the lowest in 1.5 years and experienced their
first year-over-year (year/year) drop in 5.5 years.
State of the Mac - Q2 2009 Analysis
Macs were the largest revenue generator across Apple's product lines
accounting for 36.1 percent of total revenue in the quarter. Macs dwarfed
the revenue generated by the iPod which came in second accounting for 20.4
percent of total revenue. Of note, the iPhone accounted for 18.6 percent of
The table and graph below detail total Mac shipments over the past fourteen
fiscal quarters in thousands of units. For example, 2216 units indicates
2.216 million units. The Year/Year Change highlights the percent change in
shipments over the comparable quarter from the prior year. For example, Q2
2009 is compared to Q2 2008. Note that during the quarter, Apple released
updates to the entire desktop line; the iMac, Mac mini, and Mac Pro on March
As shown, Q2 2009 Mac shipments experienced an 3.19 percent year-over-year
decline versus Q2 2008 and a 12.20 percent decline versus Q1 2009. This
number also represents a 54.1 percent deceleration versus the 14.5 percent
growth (yellow) Q2 2008 experienced over Q2 2007. The quarter also marked
the second consecutive quarter of declines (-3.33 percent and -12.20
percent), a trend last seen between Q4 2006 and Q2 2007 (orange).
Portable shipments fell 22.20 percent versus the prior quarter, Q1 2009
marked a new portable record of 1.796 million units (green). The 1.398
million portables is the lowest level seen in 1.25 years (Q1 2008 -
observable in the graph). Mac desktops showed signs of life rising 12.36
percent versus the prior quarter but fell 4.44 percent over the year ago
quarter. The desktop uptick is likely attributed to the refresh indicated
Summary of Metrics
Total Mac shipments fell 3.19 percent year-over-year and 12.20 percent
Portable shipments fell 2.44 precent year-over-year and 22.20 percent
Desktop shipments fell 4.44 percent year-over-year but rose 12.36 precent
First year-over-year Mac shipment drop in 5.5 years
In our Q1 2009 and Q4 2008 analysis, we asked if the deceleration
highlighted observed during those two quarters would continue into Q2 2009.
We now know the answer, not only did the deceleration gain steam but
year-over-year Mac shipments also dropped for the first time in 5.5 years, a
period dating back to Q3 2003.
Over the past year, Mac portables (MacBook, MacBook Pro, and MaBook Air)
were the clear driving force behind Mac growth. The stunning 22.20 percent
sequential drop following the record set in Q1 2009 is alarming.
Is the portable drop a sign that buyers are deferring Mac purchases?
Is the drop a sign that buyers are turning away from the Mac price premium?
What does this have to say about buyer willingness-to-pay (WTP)?
What insight does this provid